Meteorology Matters

• Double Whammy HIGH Risk for Tornados and Flooding

  Wednesday, April 2, 2025:Early Morning: Weather alerts are in effect across the central U.S. as forecasters monitor developing storms. Thunderstorms in the Midwest could remain severe after sunrise, influencing the severe threat for the rest of the day. Lingering storms in parts of Kansas and Missouri will likely strengthen as they move east into the Mississippi Valley by the early afternoon.Daytime: A significant severe weather threat is anticipated across a large swath from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley southwestward through the mid-South and southern Plains. The SPC upgrades the severe weather threat to a Level 5 out of 5 (High Risk) for over 4.4 million people in major Tennessee cities like Memphis, Clarksville, and Jackson, as well as Evansville, Indiana, and Jonesboro, Arkansas.Mid-Afternoon: Additional storms will develop in the Mississippi Valley, with some potentially undergoing "explosive" development.Afternoon/Evening: A tornado outbreak is expected, particularly in the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys and the eastern Ozarks. Numerous tornadoes, including multiple long-track EF3+ tornadoes, are likely. The greatest risk for tornadoes, some strong and long-lasting, will stretch from Arkansas to Indiana and Ohio, with many potentially occurring after sunset. The strongest storms could also dump baseball-sized hail in parts of the Mississippi Valley. Damaging wind gusts are also a significant threat. Severe thunderstorms could stretch from Louisiana and Arkansas north to Michigan, with a few more storms developing overnight in Texas. Schools in some areas dismiss students early and cancel after-school activities.Late Week (Starting Wednesday): The threat of significant, life-threatening flash flooding begins to grow in the Mississippi and Ohio valleys due to repeated rounds of heavy rain (training thunderstorms) moving over the same areas. Rainfall totals could exceed 5-8 inches in some spots within 24 hours, particularly from Arkansas into western Kentucky, on top of previous rainfall.Thursday, April 3, 2025:Ongoing: The cold front will slow and stall from the Mississippi and Ohio valleys into the southern Plains. Even as the main storm system moves into Canada, daytime heating and high humidity will fuel another round of severe storms with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes possible.Flooding Intensifies: The expected prolonged heavy rain continues, with a Level 4 (highest threat level) flash flood risk for parts of western Tennessee and Kentucky. A Level 3 risk zone shifts slightly to the west. Rainfall totals could approach a foot in parts of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys through Sunday. The ground becomes increasingly saturated, increasing the risk of dangerous flash flooding. Areas repeatedly under the heaviest storms could see 2 to 6 inches of rain each day, especially from Arkansas to Indiana.Friday, April 4, 2025:Ongoing: The flash flood threat remains significant, with a Level 3 risk zone shifting east again. The potential for heavy rain and severe storms continues in parts of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys.

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  10:47
• Hurricane Milton: The Official Word is Out

  14 September: A tropical wave moves off the west coast of Africa.Early October (Date unspecified): This tropical wave appears to have interacted with a pre-existing low-level trough west of the Cabo Verde Islands, contributing to Milton's genesis.04 / 1800 UTC: Best track indicates the system is a low with a central pressure of 1009 mb and wind speeds of 30 kt, located at 21.0°N 94.6°W.05 / 1200 UTC: The system strengthens into a tropical depression with a central pressure of 1008 mb and wind speeds of 30 kt, located at 22.0°N 95.5°W.05 / 1800 UTC: The tropical depression intensifies into Tropical Storm Milton with a central pressure of 1006 mb and wind speeds of 35 kt, located at 22.5°N 95.5°W.06 / 0300 UTC: A Tropical Storm Watch is issued for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Celestun to Cancun.06 / 1500 UTC: A Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Celestun to Cabo Catoche.06 / 1800 UTC: Milton becomes a hurricane with a central pressure of 986 mb and wind speeds of 70 kt, located at 22.5°N 94.1°W.06 / 2010 UTC: NOAA buoy 42055 (22.14N 94.11W) records a minimum sea level pressure of 997.5 mb and a maximum 1-minute sustained wind speed of 47 kt (gusts to 54 kt).06 / 2100 UTC: A Hurricane Watch is issued for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Celestun to Cancun.06 / 2100 UTC: The Tropical Storm Warning is extended along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Dzilam.07 / (Time uncertain): Milton reaches its peak intensity between aircraft missions.07 / ~1700 UTC: An Air Force Reserve aircraft makes its last penetration of the eye, reporting maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 158 kt and a central pressure fall from 925 mb to 912 mb.07 / ~2000 UTC: Satellite imagery suggests Milton reaches its estimated peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 155 kt and a minimum central pressure of 895 mb. At this time, it is centered about 85 nautical miles northwest of Merida.07 / 0900 UTC: A Storm Surge Watch is first issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.07 / 1200 UTC: A Hurricane Watch is issued for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Celestun to Campeche.07 / 1200 UTC: A Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Celestun to Campeche.07 / 1500 UTC: A Hurricane Watch is issued for Lake Okeechobee.07 / 2040 UTC: Campeche (MMCP) in Mexico records a minimum sea level pressure of 1001.4 mb.07 / 2100 UTC: A Hurricane Warning is issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.07 / 2100 UTC: A Hurricane Watch is issued for the east coast of the Florida Peninsula from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River.07 / 2100 UTC: A Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the Florida Gulf Coast south of Bonita Beach to Flamingo, including Lake Okeechobee.07 / 2100 UTC: A Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the Florida Gulf Coast north of the mouth of the Suwannee River northward and westward to Indian Pass.

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  29:35
• Climate Does NOT Always Mean “Climate Change”

  Meteorology Matters summarizes key developments and perspectives presented in the provided sources. Axios highlights administrative changes within NOAA, specifically the merging of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC). This move is reportedly driven by concerns about political vulnerability and potential budget cuts under the Trump administration, alongside a broader trend of reduced publicity around NOAA's climate change work. New research argues that climate science is facing an emerging "crisis" at regional scales due to accumulating discrepancies between model predictions based on the "standard approach" and real-world observations, coupled with disruptive advancements in computational approaches. Both topics underscore the complexities and challenges in understanding and predicting climate, albeit from different angles – one focusing on the institutional and political landscape of climate research, and the other on fundamental scientific paradigms.

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  12:27
• Dumbass Florida Legislators Propose Law to Ban Non-Existent Chemtrails in Trend of American Idiocy

  What is the "chemtrail" conspiracy theory? The "chemtrail" conspiracy theory posits that the condensation trails (contrails) left by aircraft are not merely water vapor, but rather intentionally dispersed chemical or biological agents ("chems"). Believers claim these substances are part of a secret, large-scale program orchestrated by governments or other powerful entities for purposes such as weather modification, population control, or biological warfare. This theory often arises from observations of contrails that linger and spread, forming hazy skies, which are misinterpreted as evidence of chemical spraying rather than natural atmospheric processes.What is the scientific explanation for contrails? Contrails, short for condensation trails, are clouds formed from the water vapor in aircraft engine exhaust. At high altitudes, the air is cold, and the aerosols (tiny particles) in the exhaust, such as soot and sulfur dioxide, act as condensation nuclei. Water vapor condenses and freezes around these particles, forming ice crystals. If the surrounding air is dry, contrails dissipate quickly. However, if the air is humid, contrails can persist and spread, sometimes merging to form larger cirrus clouds. This behavior is well-understood by atmospheric science and does not involve the intentional release of chemicals.How widespread is belief in the "chemtrail" conspiracy theory? Despite being consistently debunked by scientists, fact-checking organizations, and even courts, belief in the "chemtrail" conspiracy theory is surprisingly widespread. Surveys have indicated that a significant portion of the population holds some level of belief in these claims. The visual nature of contrails and the ease of sharing unverified information and photographs online contribute to the persistence and dissemination of the theory.What is solar geoengineering and how is it related to the "chemtrail" conspiracy theory? Solar geoengineering refers to proposed technologies that aim to reflect a small percentage of incoming sunlight back into space to counteract global warming. One prominent idea involves stratospheric aerosol injection, where tiny particles would be sprayed into the upper atmosphere. This concept shares a superficial resemblance with the "chemtrail" conspiracy theory in that both involve aerial spraying of substances by potentially state actors with observable atmospheric effects. This resemblance has contributed to the confusion and conflation of the two, with conspiracy theorists often misinterpreting discussions about legitimate solar geoengineering research as confirmation of ongoing secret "chemtrail" operations.Why is it challenging to address "chemtrail" misinformation? Several factors contribute to the difficulty of countering "chemtrail" misinformation. The visual "evidence" of contrails is readily available and easily photographed, providing a seemingly concrete basis for the theory. Distrust in government and scientific institutions, coupled with anxieties about environmental and health issues, can make people more susceptible to conspiratorial explanations.

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  26:28
• South Texas Rio Grande Valley Flooding Leads to Fatalities as Severe Weather Threat Takes Shape

  Thursday, March 27, 2025:Heavy rain begins inundating South Texas, particularly the Rio Grande Valley near the border with Mexico.More than a half-year's worth of rain falls in some areas in a short period.The city of McAllen, Texas, experiences significant flooding, with streets becoming submerged and a hospital's first floor flooding, leading to patient diversions and visitation pauses.Eyewitness video shows cars submerged in floodwaters in McAllen.Portions of Interstate 2 in Hidalgo County become underwater, with abandoned vehicles and even a fire truck stranded.In Palm Valley, near Harlingen, residents like Jionni Ochoa experience floodwaters entering their homes.Across the border in Tamaulipas, Mexico, significant rainfall also occurs, leading to flooding in cities like Reynosa and Rio Bravo.Friday, March 28, 2025:Morning:Rain continues in South Texas, though it begins to subside by the evening.Two flash flood warnings are in effect for eastern and west-central Cameron County, Texas.The Rio Grande River near San Benito, Texas, is recorded at 40.37 feet, with forecasts predicting it to rise significantly in the coming days.AccuWeather reports that at least five rain gauges in the area have recorded over 18 inches of rain in the past 48 hours. Harlingen airport reports 14.11 inches.Officials in Harlingen, Texas, report rescuing over 200 residents, with hundreds more awaiting rescue due to 21 inches of rain.Hidalgo County Judge Richard Cortez signs a local disaster declaration due to "widespread flooding and significant property damage," confirming three deaths.The city of Edinburg, the Hidalgo County seat, reports a "record-breaking downpour" causing flooding, stranded motorists, and facility damage.Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller describes the flooding as a "devastating tragedy" and notes significant agricultural and livestock losses in counties including Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr, and Willacy.A hospital in McAllen, Texas, reopens to visitors, though some parts of the first floor remain restricted due to flood damage.In Tamaulipas, Mexico, authorities report one drowning death in Reynosa. The Mexican Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection states that over 1,100 people have been moved to temporary shelters after more than a foot of rain in 48 hours, with nearly 700 rescued.Cameron County Constable PCT 5 shares images on social media showing the extent of the flooding and rescue efforts in areas like Primera, Texas.Afternoon/Evening:The heavy rain in South Texas subsides.The National Weather Service forecasts the rains to move northeast toward Mississippi and Arkansas over the next several days.AccuWeather forecasts dry weather for South Texas over the weekend and into the first half of the following week, with above-normal temperatures.Saturday, March 29, 2025:The Rio Grande River near San Benito, Texas, is forecast to rise to 48.6 feet.A multiday episode of severe weather, including potential tornadoes, is forecast to begin across the central and eastern U.S., starting in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri.Sunday, March 30, 2025:The greatest risk of severe weather, including strong tornadoes, is forecast across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.Tuesday, April 1, 2025:The Rio Grande River near San Benito, Texas, is forecast to reach 51.4 feet.

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  8:49

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