More or Less

Every year, climate scientists keep a close eye on data coming out of a particular area of the Pacific Ocean. They’re trying to measure the scale of a climate phenomenon - the El Niño event or effect.
This is a naturally occurring phenomenon where ocean surface temperatures rise, transferring warmth from the ocean to the atmosphere. This can drive up global temperatures but also play havoc with weather systems, with profound consequences.
And this year, scientists have watched with ever-widening eyes, as their projections for the peak of this year’ El Niño event have come in unprecedently high.
Indeed, one climate scientist has argued that it's not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years.
We wanted to find out more, so we went straight to the scientist himself.
Contributor:
Dr. Zeke Hausfather - research scientist with Berkeley Earth and climate research lead at Stripe
Credits:
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele
Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill
Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:38) The number of people being recalled to prison after early release in England and Wales is rising sharply. Why?
(07:37) Is the UK millionaire an endangered species? We ask Duncan Weldon - he’s like David Attenborough, but for economics.
(14:21) A viral graph seems to show that Europe is having a record low year for wildfires. How can we reconcile this with this summer’s shocking coverage of fires in France and Spain?
(21:36) We all know seagulls are low-life thieves - but can they really be responsible for £171m worth of robbery? Prepare for five minutes of public service journalism at its finest.
Guests:
Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government
Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data
Duncan Weldon, economist and author of Blood and Treasure
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

Can it really be true that every shuffle of a deck of cards is unique? Mathematician and stand-up comedian Matt Parker claims that every time you do a shuffle, the cards have never been in that order before.

But how can he be so confident? Matt came into the studio armed with a deck of cards and some very big calculations to back up his big assertion, and introduced us to the mind-splitting mathematical world of factorials and combinatorics.

Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series producer: Tom Colls
Sound engineer: James Beard
Programme co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Editor: Richard Vadon

What's this, an extra podcast? Has Christmas come early?
No, the Bayeux Tapestry has instead returned to England for the first time in almost 1000 years.
To mark the occasion, we've compiled six snack-sized stats all about the Norman invasion of England to help you have something to talk about in various social situations such a pub quizzes, movie nights and awkwardly quiet lifts.
From horses to the Harrying of the North, it's all here.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producers: Tom Colls, Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Sue Maillot

How do different countries compare, in terms of the amount of time that workers take as sick leave?
Loyal listener Dave got in touch to ask us to look at a surprising statistic he saw in the news – that the average German takes 19.5 days of sick leave per year.
“This is extremely hard to believe,” he wrote.
We track down the – highly reliable – source of the claim, and look at the differences between countries when it comes to taking time of work with illness.
To guide us through it all is Lukas Lehner - assistant professor at the University of Edinburgh.
If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk
Presenter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Krista Beighton
Series producer: Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon