The Memo by Howard Marks

• Nobody Knows (Yet Again)

  In his latest memo, Howard discusses how the recent events surrounding tariffs can have a seismic but unpredictable impact on the global economy. Seismic in that they reflect a fundamental undoing of longstanding norms, and unpredictable in that tariffs would bring untold second- and third-order consequences. He emphasizes that there is no foreknowledge here, with forecasts even less likely to be accurate than usual. Howard considers the response of the financial markets, highlighting the key question regards the appropriateness of the market reaction thus far: has it been just right, excessive, or inadequate? You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/nobody-knows-yet-again).

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  35:20
• Gimme Credit

  In his latest memo, Howard addresses a common question he’s been receiving over the last few months: “What about credit spreads?” He explains that the key question should be whether today’s spread is sufficient to offset the credit losses that’ll occur, rather than whether it’s historically narrow or not. Further, he emphasizes that spread widening is a short-term phenomenon and expresses his belief that the elevated yield offered by credit presents a better deal than equities, even at today’s spreads.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/gimme-credit).

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  29:29
• Behind The Memo: On Bubble Watch

  In the latest episode of Behind the Memo, Howard discusses his recent memo, On Bubble Watch, which revisits a subject he first wrote about 25 years ago. He delves into the investor psychology that underpins a market bubble, and assesses the danger of letting excitement and fear of missing out override risk aversion.You can listen to or read the Memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch).

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  25:26
• On Bubble Watch

  On January 2, 2000, Howard Marks published his first memo to garner any reader response, bubble.com, calling attention to excesses he detected in the market for tech and internet stocks. His newest memo revisits the subject of bubbles. Howard expresses his view that they’re more a state of mind than a quantitative calculation and describes bubble thinking as irrational, often underlaid by a widespread belief that ‘‘this time is different.’’ Rather than opining on whether we’re in a bubble, Howard lists the signs he sees today and suggests how you might think about them . . . just as he did 25 years ago.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch).

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  35:28
• Ruminating on Asset Allocation

  In his latest memo, Howard Marks outlines the need to base asset allocation decisions around an established risk target. He describes the fundamental differences between ownership and debt, as well as the importance of finding the combination of the two that gets an investor’s portfolio to the desired position on the risk/return continuum. Finally, he expands on the increased utility of debt investments in today’s portfolios.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/ruminating-on-asset-allocation.pdf?sfvrsn=67775566_2).

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  26:33

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