Forward Guidance

• Be Careful Buying The Dip Here | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss the latest inflation data, the reversal of US exceptionalism, and Trump’s bold tariff bet potentially backfiring. We also delve into how we’re thinking about yields, whether 60/40 is compelling right now, why we’re in a crypto bear market, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e0GanjFY1lh2TKOFL7QQwGi6KY9nWhwl/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:42) Upcoming Digital Asset Summit (02:16) CPI Takeaways (05:51) Reversal of US Exceptionalism (08:45) Ledger Ad (09:34) Recession vs Growth Scare (14:11) Trump's Bold Tariff Game (20:09) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade (24:36) Ledger Ad (25:21) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade (Con't) (31:11) It's a Bear Market (32:36) Bitcoin and Crypto Market Analysis (34:26) Bond Market & Yields (39:11) 60/40 Portfolio (42:34) Hedging Strategies (45:08) Crypto Market Prospects — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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• The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard

  In this episode, Vincent Deluard joins the show to discuss his on-the-money inflation calls and future outlook, the consequences of Trump’s tariff flip-flopping, and the buyers of US duration. We also delve into the impact of DOGE, the Trump Admin’s Treasury market goals, the surge in foreign yields, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Vincent Deluard: https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Inflation Predictions and Seasonal Adjustments (05:50) Stagflation Concerns and Economic Slowdown (07:33) State-Level Spending and Fiscal Policy (17:42) Tariffs & the Art of the Deal (19:25) Economic Noise vs Signal (23:36) Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy (25:36) DAS Promo (26:13) Bond Market and Liquidity (33:23) Target Date Funds (36:17) Trump Administration Goals (51:06) Surge in Foreign Yields (59:22) Market Predictions (01:03:36) Learn More About Vincent __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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• Bearish Sentiment Is Overblown | Weekly Roundup

  This week, we discuss the Trump trade shakeout, whether fear and volatility are presenting great buying opportunities, and the bond market after February’s NFP. We also delve into the outlook for the oil market, the subsectors Tony’s watching, destructive Bitcoin thinking and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1j8QLpaGApqV5sOpojjcRKCilxnOcrF7M/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:43) Bitcoin and Crypto Market (07:17) Equities and Recession Narratives (14:14) Ledger Ad (14:59) European Market Outlook (18:59) Thoughts on Buying the Dip (27:32) Ledger Ad (28:18) Bond Market and NFP (32:28) Oil Market Outlook (37:51) Equity Subsectors (40:10) Trading Strategies and Market Sentiment (43:52) Crypto Market Advice (48:45) Sectors that Will Lead Us Higher (51:37) Maintaining Emotional Composure in Trading (54:15) Learn More About Tony & Collab Plans — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  56:20
• The US is Risking Stagflation | Mohamed El-Erian

  In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss the February jobs report, tariffs & imports front-running, and the inflation outlook, including the growing risk of stagflation. We also delve into the outlook for Europe, Japan, and China, Bitcoin and digital assets, and more. Enjoy! — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG200 FOR $200 OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ Follow Mohamed: https://x.com/elerianm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:27) Job Report & Labor Market (05:45) US Growth & Stagflation Risk (09:41) Tariffs & Imports (11:19) Inflation Outlook & Oil (15:48) Fiscal Outlook (19:32) DAS Promo (20:14) Fed & Number of Cuts in 2025 (22:57) Goods, Services, & Shelter Inflation (25:51) Europe, Japan, & China (32:14) Bitcoin & Digital Assets __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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  34:42
• The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf

  In this episode, Jeff deGraaf joins the show to discuss the current market regime and why he thinks a recession is unlikely, how he is thinking about the different S&P sectors, and how foreign markets like Europe and China compare to the US. We also delve into the outlook for yields and monetary policy, credit spreads, gold, Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Jeff deGraaf: https://x.com/RenMacLLC Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:09) Market Cycle Clock Explained (06:09) Deciphering the Market Regime (10:13) Sector Performance and Predictions (11:01) Ledger Ad (11:46) Sector Performance and Predictions (Con't) (19:04) Outlook for European and Chinese Markets (24:30) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook (32:48) Ledger Ad (33:33) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook (Con't) (34:35) Credit Spreads and Market Sentiment (37:08) Gold and Bitcoin (41:27) Highest Conviction Bet for 2025 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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