Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

• Tax the dirt, with Lars Doucet & Greg Miller

  Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Lars Doucet and Greg Miller, co-founders who have just launched the Center for Land Economics, to discuss improving property taxation in the US. They explore how shifting taxes from buildings to land could transform development patterns, why California's property tax caps coincide with its housing crisis, and how the fundamental trade-off between assessment accuracy and consistency creates winners and losers. The conversation also covers the posting-to-policy pipeline, their work developing open-source tools to improve assessment equity, and techniques citizens can use to influence their local assessment office.  –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/tax-the-dirt-with-lars-doucet-greg-miller/–Sponsors:  Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast –Recommended in this episode:Center for Land Economics: https://landeconomics.org/Game of Rent by Lars Doucet: https://gameofrent.com/ Progress & Poverty: https://progressandpoverty.substack.com/ Mass Appraisal for the Masses: https://progressandpoverty.substack.com/p/mass-appraisal-for-the-masses-the Lars Doucet on Complex Systems: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/property-assessment-lars-doucet/Dave Kasten on Complex Systems: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/tech-government-dave-kasten/ –Twitter:@patio11@larsiusprime–TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:45) Center for land economics(04:01) Property tax basics(05:31) Challenges in property valuation(10:22) Impact of Proposition 13 in California(12:28) Anti-market property tax policies(14:43) Housing crisis and land value(15:46) Sponsors: Safebase(17:17) Housing crisis and land value (Part 2)(27:49) Urban development incentives(29:17) Tokyo's urban planning success(39:23) The abundance movement in housing(40:07) Innovative housing policies(41:24) Government bureaucracy and policy making(49:56) Mass appraisals and property tax fairness(01:00:02) Technological advances in property assessment(01:06:16) Empowering local governments and citizens(01:16:02) Wrap

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  1:17:07
• A tale of two Americas in one $50K cash withdrawal

  Patrick McKenzie (patio11) explains the standard procedure for large withdrawals in bank branches, with particular focus on the viral story published in The Cut about a woman who withdrew $50,000 cash from a bank and handed it to scammers. Certain minor details in the article set off a year-long investigation where he identified the exact physical location of the bank branch in question, researched the context for the transaction using public records, and obtained new details through FOIA requests. His investigation reveals an underlying narrative that accounts for what actually happened, and provides a worked example for fact-checking in journalism. –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/two-americas-one-50k-withdrawal/–Sponsors:  Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast –Recommended in this episode:Two Americas, one bank, and $50,000 cash https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/two-americas-one-bank-branch/ The Cut, The Day I Put $50,000 in a Shoe Box and Handed It to a Stranger https://www.thecut.com/article/amazon-scam-call-ftc-arrest-warrants.htmlKelsey Piper on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/33rHTZVowaq76tCTaKJfRBJim McKenzie on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ocJirzGTStuf0K9ITM21X–Timestamps: (00:55) Suppose you ask a bank to withdraw $50,000 in cash(07:55) Style magazines sometimes publish hard-hitting journalism(12:36) Reaching out to Vox Media(17:09) Sources of doubt(17:55) Sponsor: Safebase(22:30) The physical reality of bank branches(25:53) In which we became acquainted with brisk walks across Brooklyn(34:42) New York’s Finest foil FOIL for a time

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  41:13
• AI, data centers, and power economics, with Azeem Azhar

  Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Azeem Azhar, writer of the Exponential View newsletter, to discuss the massive data center buildout powering AI and its implications for our energy infrastructure. The conversation covers the physical limitations of modern datacenters, the challenges of electricity generation, the societal ripples from historical largescale infrastructure investments like railways and telecommunications, and the future of energy including solar, nuclear and geothermal power. Through their discussion, Patrick and Azeem explain why our mental models for both computing and energy systems need to be updated.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-llm-data-center-power-economics/–Sponsors:  Safebase | CheckReady to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Recommended in this episode:Azeem’s newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Azeem Azhar’s guest essay: The 19th-Century Technology That Threatens A.I. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/opinion/ai-electricity-power-plants.htmlElectric Twin: https://www.electrictwin.com/ Video of Elon Musk’s Colossus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw696JVSxJQ Complex Systems with Travis Dauwalter on the electrical grid: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5JY8e84sEXmHFlc8IR2kRb?si=35ymIC0UQ5SKdV8rrBcgIw Complex Systems with Austin Vernon on fracking: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=YshjUXPEQBiScNxrNaI-Gw Complex Systems with Casey Handmer on direct capture of CO2 to turn into hydrocarbon: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GHegWgLSubYxvATmbWhQu?si=xNYBjn0ZTX2IT_pAZ5Ozsg –Twitter:@azeem@patio11–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro (00:27) The power economics of data centers(01:12) Historical infrastructure rollouts(04:58) The telecoms bubble (06:22) Unprecedented enterprise spend on AI capabilities(11:12) Let's have your LLM talk to my LLM(16:44) Is there a saturation point?(19:25) Sponsors: Safebase | Check(21:55) What’s in a data center?(24:52) The challenges of data centers(29:40) Geographical considerations for data centers(36:53) Energy consumption and future needs(40:48) Challenges in building transmission lines(41:35) The solar power learning curve(43:51) Small modular nuclear reactors(51:26) Geothermal energy and fracking(01:01:34) The future of AI and energy systems(01:12:57) Wrap

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  1:13:53
• You can’t retract the facts

  In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) responds to a recent request by a crypto unicorn founder / bank CEO to retract his essay Debanking (and debunking?). Come for the note about editorial standards and independence, stay for the diss track. –Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/editorial-standards-and-independence/–Sponsors:  Safebase | CheckReady to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Recommended in this episode:Debanking (and debunking?): https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/debanking-and-debunking/CEO: Retract your debanking article? Me: No. https://www.kalzumeus.com/2025/02/10/retraction-request-denied/Geekiest rap single in history https://suno.com/song/c5ac7441-4a0b-4e5e-9c85-480e3ba63fc1 –Twitter:@patio11–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(03:04) Musical interlude(04:56) Return to commentary(06:35) You can’t please everyone(08:06) The bar for retraction is high(10:07) Our review of the retraction request(10:37) “A few areas were incorrect or misleading”(16:12) “Lots of omission of key facts”(18:57) “Missing the point about what we mean by debunking”(20:40) Sponsors: Safebase | Check(25:00) Our response to McCauley’s testimony(28:24) McCauley’s concluding remarks and our response(30:21) Bank CEOs do not often ask writers for retractions(34:20) Some context regarding custodial banks(40:50) Returning to our regularly scheduled programming

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  42:03
• Stablecoins and shenanigans, with Zeke Faux

  In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Zeke Faux, investigative reporter at Bloomberg and author of Number Go Up, to discuss stablecoins and crypto fraud. They dive into Tether's controversial history, the senate’s emerging GENIUS act, and how crypto enables various types of financial crime. The conversation explores how Tether went from a “quilted collection of red flags” to becoming crypto's dominant stablecoin, its noteworthy relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX, and its current political maneuvering. They also discuss the societal value of financial regulation versus laissez-faire approaches to consumer protection.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/zeke-faux-stablecoins-tether/–Sponsors:  Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast –Recommended in this episode:Number Go Up: https://zekefaux.com/Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? Zeke Faux, Bloomberg Businessweek: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/crypto-mystery-where-s-the-69-billion-backing-the-stablecoin-tether Patrick’s review of Number Go Up: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/a-review-of-number-go-up-on-crypto-shenanigans/ Doesn't Matter, That's Reg E: https://suno.com/song/173bbd67-92f7-4868-930f-efeca4b373c0–Twitter:@zekefaux@patio11–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:45) The GENIUS act of 2025(02:28) Tether's audit controversy(05:49) The origins and impact of Tether(08:17) Investigative reporting and red flags(12:58) Tether's shady business practices(19:23) Tether meets SBF(21:40) Sponsor: Check(22:51) New anecdotes in the Number Go Up paperback(28:53) The role of stable coins in crime(38:20) The importance of AML and KYC rules(44:21) Financial privacy(45:18) Sam Bankman-Fried's conference in the Bahamas(47:14) Loot NFTs(49:34) Axie Infinity: a case study(52:30) Crypto's real-world consequences(58:15) Regulation and financial safety(01:05:40) Stablecoin bill and ownership limits(01:06:50) Political realignment and crypto(01:14:40) Citizen journalists and the crypto-skeptic community(01:20:36) The abilities and limitations of institutional journalists(01:26:00) Wrap

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  1:27:03

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